GLOBALIZE THIS!

Friday, May 07, 2004

MORE JOBS = GOOD NEWS, BUT UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS

Well, twenty-nine months after the end of the recession and trillions of dollars in inefficient tax cuts later, the jobs picture is starting to solidify. The nonfarm economy added 288,000 jobs in April. At April's rate, it will take a little over 5-1/2 months just to get back to the Clinton-boom employment Zenith in early 2001. That puts us somewhere in October, 2-3 weeks out from the election.

Lost in the employment level numbers is likely to be the fact that wage growth is failing to keep pace with inflation, meaning that even with the new jobs most people are still falling behind the economic curve. Wage levels are being depressed by a number of factors: rabid union busting on the part of the Bush administration, flaunting of labor laws by corporate America, the threat of offshoring, and the simple fact that after years of job losses under Bush, the labor market is glutted with a supply of desparate job-seekers.

While we welcome the new jobs, let's keep in mind that uncertainty about the short- to mid-term economic outlook abounds and clouds any prognostication that could validate our collective sighs of relief. Here are the potential pitfalls to watch for:

First, there is the question of oil prices. They're wicked high and wicked important for much of the rest of the economy. High summer oil prices mean that people fly and drive less, take shorter and less elaborate vacations, increase prices of consumer goods, etc. Oil prices are being driven up by growing uncertainty over the situation in Iraq, which seems more dire every day; the fact that multinational oli exploration companies have been exhibiting a proclivity to overexagerate their known reserves (there is less supply out there than we thought); and surging demand in Asia.

Second, is our twin but unrelated budget and current account deficits that threaten a major, major financial crisis in the US. More on this topic later today.

¶ 5/07/2004 09:55:27 AM

Thursday, May 06, 2004

WHAT I'M READING TODAY

Hearings Before the Senate Banking Committee on The Mexican Peso Crisis and the Administration's Proposed Loan Guarantee Packagfe to Mexico.

Senator Bill Frist, March 9, 1995:

"I am deeply concerned that the American taxpayer is going to be stuck with billion-dollar losses from an ill-conceived plan based on false assumptions."

American taxpayer? Deeply concerned? Okay. But where the hell has Frist been for the past three years?!?

Let's recap some of the current administration's ill-conceived plans based on false assumptions: Tax cut. Enron energy policy. Deficit-bloating tax cut. Iraq War. Tax cut for corporations and +$300k earners. Phrma-HMO Medicare Bill. Tax cut. Navy-Boeing lease deal. No-bid reconstruction contracts. Agriculture subsidies.

Yep, he really said it: "I am deeply concerned that the American taxpayer is going to be stuck with billion-dollar losses from an ill-conceived plan based on false assumptions."

¶ 5/06/2004 03:31:47 PM

NOW WHAT'S THE RATIONAL FOR INVADING IRAQ?

A little over a year ago, Bush was mobilizing American war opinion to go rustle up Saddam's weapons of mass destruction.

Well, that was a bust.

Then, when the WMDs never showed up, Bush swung public opinion around, lining up America's collective consciousness behind the crusade to democracy to a land long abused by a brutal dictator.

Now America is the brutal dictator abusing Iraqis. First in Fallujah:

On Monday a United Nations human-rights official, Paul Hunt, called for an independent inquiry into whether American forces had used indiscriminate force in civilian areas during their month-long siege of Fallujah. American troops have been battling with Iraqi and foreign fighters in the central Iraqi city since the murder and mutilation of four American contractors there, in late March. However, Mr Hunt said that according to some reports, 90% of the 750 people thought to have died during the siege were non-combatants. While acknowledging that reliable information was hard to obtain, he said there were credible claims of “serious breaches of international humanitarian and human-rights law” by coalition forces in Fallujah.

And then the prison at Abu Ghraib:

REGARDING PART ONE OF THE INVESTIGATION, I MAKE THE FOLLOWING SPECIFIC FINDINGS OF FACT:

That between October and December 2003, at the Abu Ghraib Confinement Facility (BCCF), numerous incidents of sadistic, blatant, and wanton criminal abuses were inflicted on several detainees. This systemic and illegal abuse of detainees was intentionally perpetrated by several members of the military police guard force (372nd Military Police Company, 320thMilitary Police Battalion, 800th MP Brigade), in Tier (section) 1-A of the Abu Ghraib Prison (BCCF). The allegations of abuse were substantiated by detailed witness statements (ANNEX 26) and the discovery of extremely graphic photographic evidence. Due to the extremely sensitive nature of these photographs and videos, the ongoing CID investigation, and the potential for the criminal prosecution of several suspects, the photographic evidence is not included in the body of my investigation. The pictures and videos are available from the Criminal Investigative Command and the CTJF-7 prosecution team. In addition to the aforementioned crimes, there were also abuses committed by members of the 325th MI Battalion, 205th MI Brigade, and Joint Interrogation and Debriefing Center (JIDC). Specifically, on 24 November 2003, SPC Luciana Spencer, 205th MI Brigade, sought to degrade a detainee by having him strip and returned to cell naked. (ANNEXES 26 and 53)...and so on.

Now that these two objectives have failed, what will the Bush administration put forth next as a rational for invading Iraq?

If the war on terror is a war for the hearts and minds of the Muslim world, the Bush administration is losing the war decidedly, fertilizing terrorism, and making the whole world less safe.

Rumsfeld has got to go...for starters. Then the rest of these Bush administration loons.

¶ 5/06/2004 10:42:27 AM

Wednesday, May 05, 2004

BUSH SPEAKS TO ARABS

If Bush can do half as good at reassuring the Arab world as he did in reassuring Americans in his scintilating Meet the Press interview, then America's credibility in the eyes of the world has nothing to fear.

¶ 5/05/2004 10:56:42 AM

Tuesday, May 04, 2004

Kind of makes you wonder what's happening in Guantanamo Bay.

I guess this is one argument why American citizens detained by the Bush administration should still enjoy their constitutionally guaranteed rights:

Amendment IV
The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

Amendment V
No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a grand jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the militia, when in actual service in time of war or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offense to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.

Amendment VI
In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the state and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor, and to have the assistance of counsel for his defense.

Amendment VIII
Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted.

¶ 5/04/2004 03:26:12 PM

GEORGE WILL TURNS ON BUSH

Conservative scion George Will sees the Bush administration floundering amid self-delusion and ignorance:

Appearing Friday in the Rose Garden with Canada's prime minister, President Bush was answering a reporter's question about Canada's role in Iraq when suddenly he swerved into this extraneous thought:

"There's a lot of people in the world who don't believe that people whose skin color may not be the same as ours can be free and self-govern. I reject that. I reject that strongly. I believe that people who practice the Muslim faith can self-govern. I believe that people whose skins aren't necessarily -- are a different color than white can self-govern."

What does such careless talk say about the mind of this administration? Note that the clearly implied antecedent of the pronoun "ours" is "Americans." So the president seemed to be saying that white is, and brown is not, the color of Americans' skin. He does not mean that. But that is the sort of swamp one wanders into when trying to deflect doubts about policy by caricaturing and discrediting the doubters.

...This administration cannot be trusted to govern if it cannot be counted on to think and, having thought, to have second thoughts.

¶ 5/04/2004 10:16:18 AM

Monday, May 03, 2004

SHARING TIME

It's sharing time at Globalize This! I wanted to take this opportunity to highlightGeneral Glut's Globblog. While the General has been around for more than a year, he's new to me...and i hope to you.

Globblog, as you might guess from the name, boasts a similar scope in subject matter as yours truly, also from a decidedly non-neoclassical bent:

glob-blog: abbr. of "globalization weblog", a web site of personal or non-commercial origin that uses a dated log format that is updated on a daily or very frequent basis with new information about contemporary processes of globalization, including but not limited to deflation, disorder, development (and its demise), democracy (ditto) and dystopia.

¶ 5/03/2004 05:11:19 PM