Tuesday, March 16, 2004


Here is a great scatter plot of amalgmated presidential polling data.

Props to MaxDProphet for the tip.


The Iowa Electronic Market presidential futures shows Bush pulling slightly ahead of Kerry since Super Tuesday. At latest quote, Bush is running 50.2 to Kerry's 47.4:

Given the relative bid-ask spreads on the Kerry and Bush contracts, though, (and without volume data on the market) it seems a lot of speculators have reversed their positions from long Kerry/short Bush to long Bush/short Kerry. The smart money position has to be short Bush at this point. Happy arbitrage!

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