Tuesday, March 16, 2004

LIFT YOUR SPIRITS




Here is a great scatter plot of amalgmated presidential polling data.

Props to MaxDProphet for the tip.

**UPDATE**

The Iowa Electronic Market presidential futures shows Bush pulling slightly ahead of Kerry since Super Tuesday. At latest quote, Bush is running 50.2 to Kerry's 47.4:



Given the relative bid-ask spreads on the Kerry and Bush contracts, though, (and without volume data on the market) it seems a lot of speculators have reversed their positions from long Kerry/short Bush to long Bush/short Kerry. The smart money position has to be short Bush at this point. Happy arbitrage!

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